Week 15 NFL Picks

In an unprecedented event, I am picking all favorites this week. That’s right, 100 percent favorites, across the board.

I didn’t do it intentionally to be ironic or cool. I didn’t do it because I was feeling cowardly, brazen, or even lucky. My motivation wasn’t even laziness, like it normally is (Speaking of laziness, I apologize in advance for the brevity of this week’s picks. I’m squeezing this week’s article between Christmas shopping, two flag football tournaments, and suppressing my gag-reflex while watching my Bears offensive unit flail about like baby seals trying to escape a poacher’s club. Not a good look, Chicago.)

I sat down and reflected deeply upon this week like a Zen master, using scented candles and index cards. Alright, so I guzzled Bourbon and picked from my gut like I always do. But still, though I’m slightly unnerved by the symmetrical properties of this week’s picks, screw it. I’m sticking with it.

On to the picks. Home teams in CAPS

Thursday night’s game
CHICAGO BEARS (7-6) -2.5 over New Orleans Saints (7-6)
Drew Brees is historically not a fan of Chicago’s frozen turf. It chafes his backside.

Why I was right: All I know is that his was one of the worst games I’ve ever watched in terms of mutual offensive decision-making and execution. It was as if both head coaches picked random foreign exchange students to call their plays. Just flat-out painful to watch.

ATLANTA FALCONS (8-5) -2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-4)
The Bucs “ferocious” run defense has a suspect chin. Atlanta exploits the combo revealed by the Panthers last Monday.

Washington Redskins (7-6) -6.5 over CINCINNATI BENGALS (1-11)
Though there’s drama in D.C., ‘Skins fans needn’t worry; my mother-in-law could run for 150 yards against the Bungles, even after a Red Bull and Grey Goose.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (9-4) -16.5 over Detroit Lions (0-13)
HELP WANTED: Quarterback for a professional football team residing in a steel wasteland once known as Detroit. Leader of men needed in a catastrophically hopeless cause. Must have… (Week 15 NFL Picks continues here)

Week 6 Matchup: Versus Atlanta Falcons

Keys to the Game

Make the game a mud-fight. There’s an old saying that goes, “Never get into a mud-fight with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.” It’s safe to say that the majority of the Bears’ games this year have been almost as pretty as a prized potbellied pig, and in keeping with that theme, the Bears will want to drag Atlanta into the mudhole with them. The Falcons will want to jump on the Bears early with several quick strikes. Chicago must slow the game down and grind the clock. Kick over the hornet’s nest and swarm to the ball, particularly when Michael Turner gets the rock. Take away the big-play threat and force quarterback Matt Ryan to check-down to his safety valves. Oh, and while he’s checking down, hit him in the mouth repeatedly. Take the high-powered, youthful enthusiasm of the rookie QB and transmutate it into impatience and frustration.

The name of our game is smashmouth. Now is the time to play it. Feed them a heavy dose of Matt Forte until they drop a safety into the box. Then go play-action, vertical-strike to our receivers. I should probably just make a template for this paragraph and keep posting it each week. NOTE: Atlanta’s run defense’s soft underbelly has been exploited before and is ripe for the taking again.

John Abraham scares me. Let’s plan on containing him. The Falcons defensive end leads the league in sacks. The Bears offensive line has pushed themselves away from the buffet table and playing inspired football. They will need to continue their efforts against and double-team Abraham at all times.

Week 6 NFL Picks (read more about my picks here)
Chicago Bears -2.5 over ATLANTA FALCONS
Carolina Panthers +2.5 over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
WASHINGTON REDSKINS -13.5 over St. Louis Rams
Miami Dolphins +3.5 over HOUSTON TEXANS
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -4.5 over Baltimore Ravens
MINNESOTA VIKINGS -13.5 Detroit Lions
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -7.5 over Oakland Raiders
NEW YORK JETS -5.5 over Cincinnati Bengals
DENVER BRONCOS -3.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars
Dallas Cowboys -5.5 over ARIZONA CARDINALS
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +5.5 over Philadelphia Eagles
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -2.5 over Green Bay Packers
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -6.5 over New England Patriots
New York Giants -7.5 over CLEVELAND BROWNS

Last Week: 6-8
Overall: 43-31
(read more about my picks here)

Week 4 Matchup: Versus Philadelphia Eagles

I’ve been under the weather this weekend. Perhaps it has something to with the abrupt weather changes in my region. Maybe it’s the recent changes in my sleeping patterns as a result of taking on my new job. Or, it’s equally possible that the Chicago Bears defense blowing double-digit leads in the last two defeats has shaken my soul to the core, crippling my immune system.

It has taken a monumental effort just to write this week’s matchup under these dreadful conditions. Besides, let’s face it; creating a strategy against the potent Philadelphia Eagles using the Bears current roster is a lot like trying to convince a nation that an elected official has government experience just because she can see Russia from her house.

But the more I thought about it, the less intimidating the Eagles became. Of course, the copious doses of cold medicine/beer chasers may have affected my outlook somewhat, but if the Bears employ these tactics and limit mistakes, we might stand a chance.

Offensive Keys

Figure out how to mitigate Philly’s lethal blitz packages. Since the NFL front office might consider the use of stun grenades or rubber bullets a tad too draconian, the Bears will have to employ a different scheme. They must counter aggression with speed and slight of hand. Bench the fullback for this one game and use a tandem-halfback setup. Matt Forte and Kevin Jones are both speedy, powerful backs. Put them both in the backfield, and then give the ball to one while faking it to the other. Keep Philly guessing all night. We need to use lots of screens and misdirection to keep them on their heels. Once we have them cluing into the backfield, the play-action pass should work.

Take the initiative and play downhill. It’s extremely important to battle Philly from a position of strength, meaning we must play with the lead. If we drop behind early, or are compelled to use a one-dimensional pass attack, game over. Trust me on this one.

(Look, I like Kyle “The Future” Orton. I really do. He seems like a nice guy. I love how he hands the ball to Matt Forte and gets the hell out the way. I enjoy his game-managing prowess when playing with the lead. But if we’re trailing by six with less than two minutes remaining, and your life hung in the balance of the game’s outcome, would you feel comfortable with our collective fate resting in hands? Me neither.)

Defensive Keys

Pressure Donovan McNabb. I hear that McNabb has an ailing chest. Let’s help him out by introducing him to Soldier Field’s soft grass as often as possible. Do not allow him to get comfortable in the pocket. Hit him in the sternum, shatter his dreams, and haunt his nightmares. Convince him that the boogeyman wears navy-blue and orange.

Stop the run en-route to the quarterback. The Bears are ranked 5th in the league when it comes to stuffing the run, allowing only 71.3 rushing yards per game. They should use the same run-stuffing strategy that’s been so effective in the previous three games, only they should extend their efforts towards bottling up McNabb as well. Donovan was once a prolific runner, and he’s shown similar flashes of rushing brilliance now that he’s two years removed from his ACL repair.

Do not fear Brian Westbrook, but be wary of him. Don’t ask me how to accomplish this. Just fly casual, like Han Solo told Chewbacca. The Bears secondary and linebackers are extremely fast. The only person that might not be able to match-up with Westbrook is strongside linebacker, Hunter Hillenmeyer. The Eagles line-up Westbrook at numerous spots, including the backfield, split wide, and in the slot. The Bears shouldn’t be too concerned where he is unless he’s in the slot. Then we’ll want to make sure that one of the safeties or weakside linebacker Lance Briggs picks him up.

If the Bears employ this gameplan and limit mistakes, they may stand a chance. If not, no worries. I’m fully-stocked on cold meds and Samuel Adams.

Week 4 Picks (Home team in CAPS) (Read more here)

CINCINNATI BENGALS -3.5 over Cleveland Browns
TENNESSEE TITANS -3.5 over Minnesota Vikings
Denver Broncos -9.5 over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
San Francisco 49ers +6.5 over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
NEW YORK JETS -2.5 over Arizona Cardinals
Green Bay Packers +1.5 over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
CAROLINA PANTHERS -7.5 over Atlanta Falcons
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -7.5 over Houston Texans
San Diego Chargers -7.5 over OAKLAND RAIDERS
Buffalo Bills -8.5 over ST. LOUIS RAMS
DALLAS COWBOYS -11.5 over Washington Redskins
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 CHICAGO BEARS
Baltimore Ravens +7.5 over PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Last week: 9-7
Overall: 31-16

(Read more here)

Week 3 Matchup: Versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Offensive Keys

Minimize mistakes. We can’t afford to have costly penalties or game-changing turnovers (I’m talking to you, Greg Olsen! You drop the rock just once in this game, just once, and I swear fo’ God I will drive to Chicago and boil your pet rabbit in your own kitchen like Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction! I will fill your whole block with hot brass if I have to! Well, I’ll blog about it, anyway.)

Let’s get physical! Our offensive line did an excellent job last week and Matt Forte was relentless. We’ll need more of the same this week against a familiar cover-2 scheme that takes away the big play, but is susceptible to the power-run. The Bucs’ defense is athletic, but light-in-the-loafers. I don’t care if they drop eight or nine guys into the box.  We have four halfbacks. Four. The goal should be 300-plus yards on the ground. We need to punch them in the mouth until they fall, and then keep punching until Forte gets tired. Then we put his ass on the bench, get Jones out there and repeat until Tampa’s will has been broken. By then, Forte will have recovered enough to start all over again.

Play conservative. There’s no reason to take unnecessary risks. That’s why Sex Cannon was benched in the first place. Three yards and a cloud of dust is not a defeat. Three downs and punt is not necessarily a bad thing here. Tampa is no offensive threat, so we just need to do our thing and let them make all the mistakes. Do you know that the starting quarterback for the Bucs is Brian Griese? No, not Bob Griese, the hall-of-fame QB. I’m talking about his son, the guy who threw three interceptions in the end-zone against the Detroit Lions last season. The freaking Lions!  ‘Nuff said.

Defensive Keys

Stuff the gaps. The Bucs have had great success running the ball. Ernest Graham and Warrick Dunn are a formidable running crew. We need to make the point of attack on their side of the ball and stop them before they build momentum. That’s all I can think of to slow them down, other than using stun grenades or spiking their Gatorade with elephant tranquilizers.

Tackle, tackle, and mutha-effin-tackle! Missed tackles contributed to our loss against the Panthers last week. If we’re careless this week, not even Katt Williams’ irreverent comedy will deter me from wondering if I can heat my bath water using my toaster.

Remix the defense. Remember that Brian Griese has thrown against the Bears’ first-string unit numerous times in practice and may have some familiarity. If he’s had success against certain looks, it’s time to throw those schemes out and reboot the coverages.

Did I mention that Brian Griese is the starting QB for the Bucs? Blitz his ass. Blitz him on first down. Blitz him on second down. Blitz him on third down. Crack wise about his mama when he’s on the sideline. Keep calling him “Bob” and pretend that it’s an accident. Compliment his full breasts and vagina. Whisper about his pretty mouth into his helmet’s earhole. Eventually he’ll snap and start throwing the ball directly to the first opposing player he sees, just like old times.

Week 3 Picks (Home team in CAPS) – Read more about week 3 picks here

ATLANTA FALCONS -4.5 over Kansas City Chiefs

BUFFALO BILLS -8.5 over Oakland Raiders

CHICAGO BEARS -3.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TENNESSEE TITANS -4.5 over Houston Texans

Carolina Panthers +3.5 over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Miami Dolphins +12.5 over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

NEW YORK GIANTS -13.5 over Cincinnati Bengals

WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3.5 over Arizona Cardinals

DENVER BRONCOS -5.5 over New Orleans Saints

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -3.5 over Detroit Lions

St. Louis Rams +9.5 over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

BALTIMORE RAVENS -1.5 over Cleveland Browns

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -2.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -5.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars

Dallas Cowboys -2.5 over GREEN BAY PACKERS

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -8.5 over New York Jets

Last Week: 10-6

Overall: 22-10

Read more about week 3 picks here

 

 

Week 2 Matchup: Versus Carolina Panthers

No one likes seeing injuries. Victory as a result of gaining an advantage due to injury typically rings as a hollow win. But suspensions are fair game, and when I heard that Panthers WR and not-so-silent assassin Steve Smith was suspended two games for punching-out a teammate, I danced with unmitigated joy.

Surely we were going to walk all over those guys, right?

Not so fast. That was before seeing Carolina in action on the road against San Diego. That was before witnessing Jake Delhomme – that’s right, Jake freakin Delhomme – march the Panthers to a game winning touchdown as the clock expired. The Bears will be traveling to Carolina to face a red-hot, confident offense. The Bears must bring their A-game, or they will be running into a buzzsaw.

Offensive Keys

The Panthers defense isn’t too remarkable which is great considering the fact that neither is the Bears offense. But similar to the Bears, Carolina is a ball-hawking unit that looks for turnovers. For Chicago to prevail, it has to be all about the smashmouthed power-run and ball-security. Matt Forte left, Forte right, Forte off-tackle, Forte between the tackles, Forte up the middle, Forte carrying Kyle Orton to and from the sideline on his back, Forte versus Carolina’s defensive line in a yo’ mama diss fight, whatever it takes. When Carolina drops safeties into the box, Orton should stretch them out and go vertical (Assuming he can throw beyond 25 yards. I’m still skeptical.)

We do not want to get into a shootout with these guys, but if it comes to that, our best options are our tight-ends versus their linebackers/safeties.  As evidenced by last game against the Colts, Desmond Clark and Greg Olson both hinted at big-game potential, making huge receptions in the clutch. If one or both can sustain that effort for a full 60 minutes, or more accurately, if “The Future” can avoid costly mistakes and get the ball to them, we have a puncher’s chance.

Defensive Keys

Like the Bears, the Panthers offense flows from the running game. But unlike the Bears, the Panthers have an effective passing game that’s fresh from being battle-tested against the reigning AFC West champs. I expect that the Bears will begin by snuffing out the run with the same gap-filling, seven-on-the-line defense they used against the Colts. If the Bears build a lead, they will most-likely employ their standard cover-2 scheme and try either frustrating Delhomme into either taking the short gains or pressuring him into making mistakes.

Final Assessment

I like our chances if we’re physical and if we take the early initiative. If we’re playing catch-up, or we have to adapt our game to suit theirs, it could be a long day. I say that we will take the initiative.

Score: Bears 27, Panthers 19

Elsewhere in the NFL

Look, I get it; Tom Brady suffered a horrific, season-ending injury. We’ve all seen the footage countless times. Please stop showing that footage. Please burn any remnants of that footage. As someone who recovered from an ACL repair, the repeated viewings and multiple angles of Brady’s knee bending the wrong way makes me queasy and light-headed. We know it was Bernard Pollard who hit him in the knee. We know it was controversial. But no matter how many angles we see, no one will ever be able to spot the second shooter on the grassy knoll. Please stop it.

That thunderous sound heard across the country earlier this week was millions of participants in various NFL pick-em games running to change their pick in the Atlanta Falcons versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers game when it was announced that Brian Griese was starting at QB for Tampa. I even told my own wife though we’re competing against one another in a pick-em league. Keeping info like that to myself just felt like cheating.

During the offseason, after being exposed to Vince Young’s NFL commercial where he discusses the various meanings of his tattoos, I mocked him in private and openly questioned his intelligence. After this week’s news of him being depressed and despondent as a result of both, his poor performance, and his fans booing him off the field, I realize that I was wrong about him. It’s not his intelligence that comes into question, but his maturity. He’s not a dumb kid, he’s just a kid. I have no doubt that he will bounce-back and recover from this setback, and he’ll be a better man for it. Someone wise once said that it’s not about how we get knocked down, but how we get back up. Or maybe that was Rocky Balboa. I was kinda drunk, so I don’t remember who actually said that.

Week 2 Picks (Home team in CAPS)

Tennessee Titans +1.5 over CINCINNATI BENGALS

New Orleans Saints +0.5 over WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Chicago Bears +3.5 over CAROLINA PANTHERS

Buffalo Bills +6.5 over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Green Bay Packers -2.5 over DETROIT LIONS

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -3.5 over Oakland Raiders

ST. LOUIS RAMS +8.5 over New York Giants

Indianapolis Colts -1.5 over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

San Francisco 49ers +8.5 over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Atlanta Falcons +8.5 over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

New England Patriots +2.5 over NEW YORK JETS

ARIZONA CARDINALS -6.5 over Miami Dolphins

DENVER BRONCOS +2.5 over San Diego Chargers

Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 over CLEVELAND BROWNS

Monday, Sep 15, 2008

Baltimore Ravens +4.5 over HOUSTON TEXANS

Philadelphia Eagles +6.5 DALLAS COWBOYS

Last Week: 12-4 Overall: 12-4

(Yes, I know last week’s picks haven’t been recorded here, but I kept track using other means. You’ll just have to trust me on this one.)