NFL Conference Championship Picks

Obviously, I’m watching the Philadelphia Eagles’ playoff progression with great interest.

After all, they obtained the last NFC playoff berth, which is a spot my Chicago Bears would have secured if they hadn’t allowed themselves to be manhandled by the Houston Texans (The Houston Effing Texans!) during the final game of the regular season.

During the playoffs, I observed the Eagles plucking the low-hanging fruit of a Viking team led by QB Tavaris Jackson. I even monitored them lucking onto a Giants team led by QB Eli Manning on a day when he decided to impersonate his older brother Peyton by choking-away an important game.

Now the Eagles are one step away from representing the NFC in the Superbowl. All that stands in their way is an Arizona Cardinals team that doesn’t exactly strike fear into anyone’s hearts. I find myself consumed by one thought; if only the Bears had beaten the Texans and received similar lucky playoff bounces, they might have found themselves in the Eagles position this weekend. All they had to do was beat the Houston Texans, a veritable doormat, albeit an improved doormat. In a related story, did you know that when set ablaze, an authentic, NFL Equipment licensed Chicago Bears fleece hoodie has a distinctive smell, and the flames emit a burnt-orange hue?

Just kidding. As a casual environmentalist, I’m not increasing my carbon footprint just because my team choked. But all bets are off if one more smarmy, latte-drinking, bandwagon-jumping Seattleite sees my hoodie as a green light to randomly diss my team, especially after the putrid season their Seahawks had.

If that happens again, I just might have to set the whole damned state of Washington on fire and relieve myself on the embers.

(Disclaimer: I kid, I kid. I’m not an arsonist, nor do I advocate solving one’s uglier problems with a beautiful can of gasoline and one exquisite, lovely match. Nope. These are just jokes, not suggestions.)

I’m probably boring you with my antisocial, sociopathic ranting. Let’s move on to the picks. Home team is in CAPS.

NFC Conference Championship – Philadelphia Eagles -3 over ARIZONA CARDINALS
It’s been a storybook season for both teams.

(NFL Conference Championship Picks continues here)

NFL Divisional Playoff Round Picks: The Worst That Can Happen

As always, home team is in CAPS.

Baltimore Ravens +3.0 over TENNESSEE TITANS
Upset Special: I expected the Ravens defense to single-handedly defeat the Dolphins last week, and they did. But I didn’t anticipate them to impose their will in such a ferocious, dominating fashion. Baltimore takes their band of purple terror on the road to face a team built in similar fashion (Solid running game, dominating defense, game-managing QB who is only asked not to screw-up).

On paper, Tennessee has the advantage. The experience of Titans veteran QB Kerry Collins seems to trump Rookie QB Joe Flacco’s youthful exuberance, especially after Flacco’s shaky performance against the Dolphins. Flacco will be on the road again, this time in a cooler, more hostile environment. The tealeaves say advantage: Titans.

But… (NFL Divisional Playoff Round Picks continues here)

Week 17 NFL Picks: Christmas Loot

I hope that everyone had a pleasant and safe Christmas, happy Hanukkah, festive Festivus, or an enjoyable time participating in whatever holiday you subscribe to, even the pagan goat horn-blowing, barking at the moon ones. Before I get to the final weekly NFL picks of the regular season, here’s a tally of some of my notable Christmas loot:

Chicago Bears fleece zip-up hoodie and skully – This is the pinnacle of all gifts for me. If you’re a friend, a loved one, or just a stranger with the need to bribe me, simply purchase me an XXL Chicago Bear hoodie and I am instantly in your debt. It doesn’t even matter if I already have the hoodie you just bought. It just makes it easier to cycle through the laundry. Let me speak plainly; I can never have too many Chicago Bears hoodies.

The Truth About Chuck Norris: 400 Facts About the World’s Greatest Human (Paperback) – This is the gift that keeps on giving. It is an unauthorized publishing of a collection of the funnier Chuck Norris jokes filtering throughout the internet. Through the kindness of my wife, my trips to the crapper are once again a hilarious experience. Speaking of which…

Pooping Santa candy dispenser – Simply described, this is a plastic recreation of a giddy, squatting Santa dispensing chocolate candies from an opening in his pooper. I know! Totally classy, right?

Ghost Recon 2: Advanced Warfighter for PSP – I was gracious in receiving it, but two things prevent my enjoyment of this gift.

(1) I purchased my PSP solely for playing Madden 08. Once I reached the point when I was defeating the CPU on All-Madden level by the average score of 44-7, like Alexander the Great, I wept, for I had no more worlds to conquer. As a result, I haven’t picked up my PSP in months. Even now, the display is covered by a fine layer of dust.

(2) My military game interest is largely strategic-theatre based instead of the ground-pounding first-person tactical genre that currently dominates the market. I don’t care how a simulated terror cell is eliminated as much as I’m interested in my simulated global domination of the Western hemisphere. I cannot conquer an entire continent with a twenty-man platoon from Seal Team 6, no matter how well-trained they are.

Darth Vader keychain – My wife observed that my previous Darth Vader keychain was damaged. Shuddup.

But enough about me. I will now confront these picks.

NOTE: Week 17 picks are frequently difficult due to several mitigating factors. Some powerhouses, having already secured top seeded playoff berths, pack it in and send out their C-game, saving their A-game for the playoffs. Other contenders on the bubble tend to throw the kitchen sink at their opponents. Scrappy teams that barely missed the playoffs revel in destroying the playoff chances of teams that are still in contention. Bottom-feeding teams with no heart just show up to cash their checks. My point is that what’s displayed on the field during week 17 is not necessarily an indication of what the teams are about. Basically, sports betters should find something less risky than betting on Week 17 games like skydiving or having unprotected sex with Pamela Anderson.

Don’t say I didn’t warn ya.

Here are my picks. As always, home teams are in CAPS.

ATLANTA FALCONS (10-5) -14.5 over St. Louis Rams (2-13)
The Good News: Rams Coach Jim Haslet may become the first interim head coach of the season to shed the uninspiring “interim” label.

The Bad News: He’ll probably have to settle for the head coach mantle of St. Peter Elementary School’s Beaver-Pup squad (The Fightin Beavers.)

New England Patriots (10-5) -6.5 over BUFFALO BILLS (7-8)
The Pats are playing for their playoff lives while the Bills are playing to break even, which is a traditional goal of any Dick Jauron-led team (Jauron currently holds an overall head coach record of 57 wins, 75 losses, including a 35–45 regular season record as head coach of the Chicago Bears from 1999-2003. Basically, the fatted calf has been prepared for slaughter.)

Week 17 NFL Picks continues here

Week 16 NFL Picks: Snow Day

Most Midwesterners scoff when Seattle residents complain about receiving a few snow flurries. As a native Chicagoan, I was once one of those scoffers. Unfortunately, I hadn’t considered two things: (1) Driving in the snow on the flat terrain of the Great Plains is drastically different from the steep hills of the Puget Sound region and (2) I’ve never actually driven in the snow through any terrain before.

That made yesterday’s drive home through the snow drifts of Greater Seattle all the more harrowing. What was normally a leisurely 45-minute commute became a two-hour white-knuckled joyride to the Apocalypse. I would have been almost as comfortable in the passenger seat offering suggestions to my driverless, wayward Toyota Matrix.

Somehow, through a combination of my limited driving skills and the idiocy of fate, I emerged unscathed. Unwilling to test my luck again, I opted to check the weather reports in the morning.

Obviously, I did not expect to awaken to several more inches of snow in my driveway, nor did I anticipate being awakened by “thunder-snowing”. I’ve never encountered thunder-snowing before. Never imagined it was possible. Nursery rhymes, bedtime stories, or Biblical tales have never mentioned thunder-snowing, so imagine my shock and horror.

The bad news is, assuming the weather had some perverse vendetta against me, I took a snow day and stayed home. The good news is that I had plenty of time to devote to my weekly NFL picks.

(Week 16 NFL Picks continues here)

Week 14 NFL Picks (Rehabbed)

And now a moment of truth; last week’s picks were almost as successful as a homosexual gangster rapper. After a few successful opening weeks, I have gradually fallen-off as the façade of my genius was slowly peeled away. It could be argued that this season’s picks have paralleled Britney Spears’ career, with last week being my combined K-fed, shaved head, toddler-driving, baby-dropping, MTV Awards stoned stripper performance.

Like Britney said, what the hell was I thinking?

This week, I turn it all around. I’m going to rehab, cleaning-up my image, going on a diet, and staging a contrived interview to rejuvenate my career. If Britney can make a comeback, so can I, dammit.

On to the picks (home team in CAPS)

Week 14 NFL Picks continues here

Week 13 NFL Picks

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! No filler today! I’m skipping the appetizers and rushing right in to rip off a turkey leg before Andy Reid can throw an ill-advised challenge flag or battle Mike Holmgren to the death for the right to mismanage a two-minute egg-timer while blaming their players for scorching the gravy.

Let’s get right to the meat.

Thursday, Nov 27, 2008

Tennessee Titans (10-1) -11.5 over DETROIT LIONS (0-11)

My “Goulish” Week 9 NFL Picks

Happy Halloween everyone! I know it’s a bit late in the game, but in keeping with today’s theme, and due in no small part to the fact that my recent picks have been a house of horrors, I submit my picks in trick-or-treat format.

(NOTE: You can tell that I didn’t switch my picks because I’m mostly wrong, as usual.)

BUFFALO BILLS (5-2)-5.5 over New York Jets (4-3)

Trick: Brett Favre is a giving soul who loves throwing touchdowns to his teammates.

Treat: Sometimes he gets carried away with his generosity and throws a few touchdowns to the opposing team too.

CHICAGO BEARS (4-3)-12.5 over Detroit Lions (0-7)

Trick: The Bears are not taking the Lions lightly, with many of the players stating in the press that Detroit isn’t the same team they destroyed weeks earlier.

Treat: Detroit’s fecal-salad costume smells just as bad as their turd-sandwich costume. OK, so maybe that’s a treat for just me.

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4)-7.5 over CINCINNATI BENGALS (0-8)

Trick: Chad Ocho Cinco was mandated by the league to wear his previous name, Johnson, on the back of his jersey for the duration of this season though he legally changed his name.

Treat: Fortunately for him (and mercifully for the still winless Bengals) his season his half-over.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (3-4)-1.5 over Baltimore Ravens (4-3)

Trick: Tight-end Kellen Winslow was suspended last week for coming clean about his staph infection, speaking up for his teammates, and putting his team in a bad light by refusing to lie about it. What?

Just a sec… what?

Treat: Cleveland’s favorite soldier will be plenty rested and eager to unleash some pain this weekend.

ST. LOUIS RAMS (2-5) +2.5 over Arizona Cardinals (4-3)

Trick: Kurt Warner on the road in the stadium that once reverberated with the power of his 99 and 01 MVP performances. Awkward…

Treat: The field turf that replaced the original Astroturf is much softer, which will cushion his falls after he surrenders numerous sacks .It will also make his frequent fumbles bounce less erratically, giving him the opportunity to fall on a few of them.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (3-4)-4.5 over Houston Texans (3-4)

Trick: Figuring out how to tackle Adrian Peterson. Good luck with that.

Treat: watching AP go through the Texans defense like the scene from The Last Boy Scout, only to realize that unlike the guy from that scene, AP isn’t actually killing his opponents by firing a sidearm. That’s just how he rolls.

TENNESSEE TITANS (7-0)-6.5 over Green Bay Packers (4-3)

Trick: The Titans are still undefeated with Kerry Collins starting at quarterback.

Treat: With a defense as stout as theirs, they’d probably be undefeated with Joan Collins starting at QB.

(Read the rest of my picks here)

Week 4 Matchup: Versus Philadelphia Eagles

I’ve been under the weather this weekend. Perhaps it has something to with the abrupt weather changes in my region. Maybe it’s the recent changes in my sleeping patterns as a result of taking on my new job. Or, it’s equally possible that the Chicago Bears defense blowing double-digit leads in the last two defeats has shaken my soul to the core, crippling my immune system.

It has taken a monumental effort just to write this week’s matchup under these dreadful conditions. Besides, let’s face it; creating a strategy against the potent Philadelphia Eagles using the Bears current roster is a lot like trying to convince a nation that an elected official has government experience just because she can see Russia from her house.

But the more I thought about it, the less intimidating the Eagles became. Of course, the copious doses of cold medicine/beer chasers may have affected my outlook somewhat, but if the Bears employ these tactics and limit mistakes, we might stand a chance.

Offensive Keys

Figure out how to mitigate Philly’s lethal blitz packages. Since the NFL front office might consider the use of stun grenades or rubber bullets a tad too draconian, the Bears will have to employ a different scheme. They must counter aggression with speed and slight of hand. Bench the fullback for this one game and use a tandem-halfback setup. Matt Forte and Kevin Jones are both speedy, powerful backs. Put them both in the backfield, and then give the ball to one while faking it to the other. Keep Philly guessing all night. We need to use lots of screens and misdirection to keep them on their heels. Once we have them cluing into the backfield, the play-action pass should work.

Take the initiative and play downhill. It’s extremely important to battle Philly from a position of strength, meaning we must play with the lead. If we drop behind early, or are compelled to use a one-dimensional pass attack, game over. Trust me on this one.

(Look, I like Kyle “The Future” Orton. I really do. He seems like a nice guy. I love how he hands the ball to Matt Forte and gets the hell out the way. I enjoy his game-managing prowess when playing with the lead. But if we’re trailing by six with less than two minutes remaining, and your life hung in the balance of the game’s outcome, would you feel comfortable with our collective fate resting in hands? Me neither.)

Defensive Keys

Pressure Donovan McNabb. I hear that McNabb has an ailing chest. Let’s help him out by introducing him to Soldier Field’s soft grass as often as possible. Do not allow him to get comfortable in the pocket. Hit him in the sternum, shatter his dreams, and haunt his nightmares. Convince him that the boogeyman wears navy-blue and orange.

Stop the run en-route to the quarterback. The Bears are ranked 5th in the league when it comes to stuffing the run, allowing only 71.3 rushing yards per game. They should use the same run-stuffing strategy that’s been so effective in the previous three games, only they should extend their efforts towards bottling up McNabb as well. Donovan was once a prolific runner, and he’s shown similar flashes of rushing brilliance now that he’s two years removed from his ACL repair.

Do not fear Brian Westbrook, but be wary of him. Don’t ask me how to accomplish this. Just fly casual, like Han Solo told Chewbacca. The Bears secondary and linebackers are extremely fast. The only person that might not be able to match-up with Westbrook is strongside linebacker, Hunter Hillenmeyer. The Eagles line-up Westbrook at numerous spots, including the backfield, split wide, and in the slot. The Bears shouldn’t be too concerned where he is unless he’s in the slot. Then we’ll want to make sure that one of the safeties or weakside linebacker Lance Briggs picks him up.

If the Bears employ this gameplan and limit mistakes, they may stand a chance. If not, no worries. I’m fully-stocked on cold meds and Samuel Adams.

Week 4 Picks (Home team in CAPS) (Read more here)

CINCINNATI BENGALS -3.5 over Cleveland Browns
TENNESSEE TITANS -3.5 over Minnesota Vikings
Denver Broncos -9.5 over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
San Francisco 49ers +6.5 over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
NEW YORK JETS -2.5 over Arizona Cardinals
Green Bay Packers +1.5 over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
CAROLINA PANTHERS -7.5 over Atlanta Falcons
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -7.5 over Houston Texans
San Diego Chargers -7.5 over OAKLAND RAIDERS
Buffalo Bills -8.5 over ST. LOUIS RAMS
DALLAS COWBOYS -11.5 over Washington Redskins
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 CHICAGO BEARS
Baltimore Ravens +7.5 over PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Last week: 9-7
Overall: 31-16

(Read more here)